* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOAQUIN AL112015 10/08/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 50 43 34 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 50 43 34 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 50 45 39 34 27 21 18 17 17 17 DIS DIS Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 48 50 51 47 45 40 40 44 48 52 55 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 1 0 0 0 -1 0 0 -3 -5 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 257 265 271 277 297 306 297 296 283 272 267 N/A N/A SST (C) 20.4 20.0 19.3 18.8 18.7 17.5 17.9 18.3 18.6 18.3 18.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 86 85 82 80 79 74 74 74 74 74 73 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 81 79 77 75 73 68 67 67 68 67 66 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.1 -50.4 -50.7 -50.7 -51.8 -52.6 -53.6 -54.0 -54.2 -54.7 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 41 40 40 43 47 45 45 47 47 48 45 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 34 30 26 22 20 16 13 10 10 9 10 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 115 140 150 138 115 111 94 88 79 76 58 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 35 11 8 7 -10 -11 -10 -5 -12 -9 -19 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 13 29 42 18 35 40 21 16 1 -15 -20 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1234 1494 1760 1573 1313 965 716 496 301 153 38 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 41.9 42.2 42.5 43.0 43.4 44.0 43.8 43.4 42.9 42.2 41.2 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 39.1 35.4 31.6 28.4 25.3 21.0 17.9 15.2 12.8 10.8 9.1 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 29 28 26 23 20 13 11 9 9 8 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 31 CX,CY: 31/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -9. -14. -17. -19. -21. -22. -23. -24. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -7. -14. -20. -25. -29. -33. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -14. -18. -22. -26. -29. -31. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -7. -10. -16. -22. -25. -26. -27. -26. -24. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -16. -18. -20. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -12. -21. -29. -45. -60. -73. -81. -89. -95.-102.-110. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/08/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 48.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.8/ -0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 21.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.1/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/08/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/08/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)