* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OHO CP072015 10/08/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 60 45 30 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 60 45 30 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 75 63 51 40 30 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 42 50 51 57 59 53 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 8 7 3 4 -7 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 216 210 218 218 221 214 242 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.3 23.1 21.8 20.6 19.1 14.4 8.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 113 101 88 76 70 70 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.7 -50.2 -50.5 -50.5 -50.3 -52.8 -55.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 1 1 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 49 51 56 64 74 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 31 30 30 28 29 32 24 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 101 70 64 75 98 98 128 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 98 61 73 129 152 124 99 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 30 9 27 55 97 80 -66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1406 1759 1635 1319 1057 334 -459 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.8 32.0 35.1 38.7 42.3 50.9 59.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 145.2 143.5 141.7 139.5 137.4 133.5 128.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 34 35 37 40 42 45 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 33 CX,CY: 9/ 32 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -10. -17. -29. -37. -42. -47. -49. -49. -51. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -5. -9. -13. -15. -17. -21. -36. -55. -75. -90.-100.-106. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. 15. PERSISTENCE -5. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. -4. -3. -3. -2. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 13. 16. 19. 21. 22. 22. 21. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -15. -17. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -3. 1. -9. -10. -9. -9. -10. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 1. 0. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -3. -7. -4. -4. -4. -2. 1. 4. 10. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -11. -10. -10. -10. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -15. -30. -45. -57. -66. -79. -95.-113.-130.-143.-152.-158. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP072015 OHO 10/08/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 51.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 14.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 102.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 21.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP072015 OHO 10/08/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##