* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952015 10/08/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 23 26 32 43 51 62 68 69 71 72 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 23 26 32 43 51 62 68 69 71 72 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 25 28 34 43 56 66 72 74 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 2 3 4 5 6 6 5 6 4 3 4 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -1 -3 0 -3 -3 -3 3 4 1 2 SHEAR DIR 55 347 296 301 311 334 60 101 80 99 141 287 246 SST (C) 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.3 29.1 29.0 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 156 158 160 162 163 164 164 162 161 157 155 154 151 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.3 -53.0 -52.4 -52.7 -52.1 -52.5 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 9 9 8 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 73 73 74 75 74 75 74 71 63 63 55 51 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 4 5 6 7 9 11 11 14 17 16 18 19 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -28 -36 -37 -35 -29 -26 -16 0 33 56 50 48 200 MB DIV 36 34 24 42 66 69 56 58 12 23 25 11 1 700-850 TADV 3 5 4 3 1 1 3 2 1 1 1 1 0 LAND (KM) 2045 2135 2232 2314 2406 2606 2490 2246 2039 1838 1648 1466 1257 LAT (DEG N) 8.2 8.4 8.6 8.9 9.1 9.6 10.2 10.6 10.9 11.3 12.0 12.9 14.3 LONG(DEG W) 121.5 123.1 124.7 126.3 127.9 131.0 133.7 136.0 138.0 139.9 141.5 142.9 144.3 STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 16 16 16 15 13 11 10 9 8 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 22 33 40 28 22 29 35 35 23 25 21 22 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 32. 36. 39. 42. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 6. 10. 10. 14. 18. 17. 20. 21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -10. -13. -14. -15. -16. -17. -16. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 6. 12. 23. 31. 42. 48. 49. 51. 52. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952015 INVEST 10/08/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 5.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952015 INVEST 10/08/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##