* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OHO CP072015 10/08/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 50 36 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 50 36 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 52 41 32 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 48 50 51 55 61 48 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 5 10 7 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 213 218 223 232 227 197 174 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.4 22.2 21.1 19.8 17.8 13.8 12.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 103 92 81 70 70 67 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.9 -51.2 -51.2 -51.2 -50.3 -49.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 47 49 55 62 76 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 28 27 27 27 30 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 77 64 83 98 147 130 154 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 54 49 74 132 149 146 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 18 6 11 85 115 -46 -58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1643 1690 1339 1073 848 347 170 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.0 33.8 36.5 40.7 44.8 52.9 55.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 144.1 141.5 138.9 137.1 135.3 136.4 136.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 33 35 39 44 41 28 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 31 CX,CY: 8/ 30 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 688 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -10. -16. -26. -34. -38. -42. -43. -43. -45. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -7. -9. -9. -10. -17. -33. -55. -77. -94.-105.-111. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -6. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -8. -6. -5. -5. -3. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 7. 19. 24. 30. 33. 34. 33. 32. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -17. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. 1. -26. -26. -26. -26. -27. -26. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. 13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -4. -4. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -11. -10. -10. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -12. -14. -15. -15. -16. -16. -16. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -15. -29. -41. -51. -55. -85.-102.-120.-139.-156.-167.-174. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP072015 OHO 10/08/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -25.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 52.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 18.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 1.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP072015 OHO 10/08/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##