* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952015 10/08/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 22 25 32 42 49 56 63 66 64 66 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 22 25 32 42 49 56 63 66 64 66 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 21 21 23 26 31 39 48 54 55 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 5 5 5 6 7 4 6 8 1 2 6 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 -2 -3 1 0 1 9 17 14 2 -3 SHEAR DIR 319 303 304 297 296 25 34 348 351 50 286 306 280 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.3 29.0 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 157 158 160 161 162 163 164 162 161 159 158 155 148 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.1 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -52.2 -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 7 7 6 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 74 76 75 75 75 73 68 58 56 53 49 46 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 6 7 8 10 12 13 16 19 22 21 23 850 MB ENV VOR -30 -40 -44 -45 -38 -28 -6 21 54 60 64 64 73 200 MB DIV 32 28 48 59 70 35 54 34 29 39 32 43 45 700-850 TADV 5 4 3 1 2 3 0 0 -1 -2 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 2097 2153 2198 2254 2316 2450 2553 2399 2242 2065 1875 1663 1467 LAT (DEG N) 8.6 9.0 9.4 9.8 10.1 10.8 11.5 11.9 12.3 12.9 13.6 14.6 15.8 LONG(DEG W) 122.8 124.1 125.3 126.6 127.8 130.2 132.2 133.8 135.2 136.7 138.3 140.0 141.5 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 12 11 9 8 8 8 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 30 33 25 19 19 25 32 39 31 21 19 24 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 32. 36. 39. 42. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. -2. -3. -1. -3. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -6. -8. -10. -10. -11. -11. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 17. 22. 26. 25. 27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -10. -12. -13. -15. -15. -16. -15. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 2. 5. 12. 22. 29. 36. 43. 46. 44. 47. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952015 INVEST 10/08/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 8.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952015 INVEST 10/08/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##