* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OHO CP072015 10/08/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 48 36 24 18 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 48 36 24 18 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 50 39 31 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 46 46 49 55 50 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 7 7 2 -4 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 217 220 227 220 222 206 228 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 22.5 20.9 19.5 16.6 14.1 12.2 11.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 95 79 70 70 70 66 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.3 -51.4 -51.8 -52.7 -50.8 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 50 57 71 78 78 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 20 19 15 16 16 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 68 90 107 141 141 183 158 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 51 110 151 182 158 135 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 26 -35 -14 96 97 -49 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1774 1359 1040 751 381 149 -116 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.0 37.3 41.5 46.5 51.5 57.0 60.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 142.0 139.5 137.0 136.1 135.2 138.2 140.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 38 47 48 50 39 24 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 28 CX,CY: 10/ 26 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 808 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -6. -11. -17. -26. -33. -37. -40. -41. -41. -42. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -5. -5. -4. -2. -6. -19. -36. -53. -66. -74. -79. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. 15. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 4. 14. 31. 40. 49. 54. 56. 56. 54. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. -18. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -7. -9. -10. -23. -24. -24. -24. -24. -24. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -12. -11. -11. -10. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -11. -14. -14. -15. -16. -16. -16. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -12. -24. -36. -42. -43. -52. -61. -70. -81. -92.-100.-106. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP072015 OHO 10/08/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 49.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 16.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 130.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP072015 OHO 10/08/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##