* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952015 10/08/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 23 26 37 46 58 65 69 73 73 74 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 23 26 37 46 58 65 69 73 73 74 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 24 28 36 48 57 63 66 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 6 4 4 5 2 8 1 1 9 16 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -3 -3 -1 0 -2 1 12 11 0 -6 -2 SHEAR DIR 271 275 277 273 309 52 9 4 293 356 239 256 254 SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.9 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.1 28.7 28.3 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 162 163 163 165 162 160 159 156 152 148 141 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -52.4 -52.7 -52.0 -52.5 -51.9 -52.1 -51.6 -51.7 -51.1 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 76 75 75 74 74 72 63 56 55 51 48 43 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 7 9 9 10 12 13 16 20 21 24 26 27 850 MB ENV VOR -44 -44 -39 -29 -23 -26 -3 35 58 49 45 47 63 200 MB DIV 29 35 65 72 55 75 47 40 61 59 19 40 16 700-850 TADV 4 3 0 1 1 3 1 0 0 0 -1 0 3 LAND (KM) 2194 2248 2309 2377 2450 2533 2306 2119 1903 1669 1426 1175 936 LAT (DEG N) 9.3 9.7 10.1 10.5 10.8 11.6 12.2 12.6 13.2 14.0 14.8 15.8 16.8 LONG(DEG W) 125.1 126.4 127.7 129.0 130.2 132.6 134.6 136.3 138.2 140.2 142.3 144.4 146.4 STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 13 13 12 11 10 9 10 11 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 27 22 24 27 25 34 38 22 17 25 31 19 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 7. 15. 24. 32. 36. 39. 41. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 6. 10. 12. 17. 22. 24. 29. 31. 32. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 6. 17. 26. 38. 45. 49. 53. 53. 54. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952015 INVEST 10/08/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 142.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 19.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952015 INVEST 10/08/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##