* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952015 10/08/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 36 43 55 68 81 86 89 90 88 87 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 36 43 55 68 81 86 89 90 88 87 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 30 33 36 44 57 77 94 105 105 99 93 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 3 3 2 1 4 2 1 2 7 16 13 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 -2 -3 0 -3 -3 5 3 -3 -4 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 263 254 228 294 32 165 64 97 151 228 262 280 274 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.9 29.7 29.5 29.3 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.1 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 163 163 165 162 160 158 155 153 149 145 143 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 -52.1 -52.3 -51.6 -51.8 -51.5 -51.5 -51.4 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 8 9 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 75 76 76 74 70 66 58 55 54 50 46 46 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 9 10 11 13 14 16 19 21 24 27 27 27 850 MB ENV VOR -36 -25 -12 -15 -20 -13 23 40 39 41 48 66 90 200 MB DIV 43 91 90 56 43 47 45 52 60 50 39 49 22 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 1 2 2 2 0 0 0 5 1 4 LAND (KM) 2302 2369 2442 2520 2537 2271 2054 1823 1575 1352 1134 923 751 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.4 10.8 11.2 11.5 12.1 12.5 13.0 13.7 14.3 15.0 15.6 16.2 LONG(DEG W) 127.5 128.8 130.1 131.3 132.6 135.0 137.0 139.1 141.3 143.3 145.2 147.1 148.6 STM SPEED (KT) 17 13 13 13 13 11 10 11 11 10 10 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 23 27 25 28 34 36 18 18 27 26 16 25 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):287/ 20 CX,CY: -18/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 7. 15. 23. 30. 33. 35. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 13. 12. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 7. 10. 12. 17. 20. 25. 29. 29. 28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 18. 30. 43. 56. 61. 64. 65. 63. 62. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952015 INVEST 10/08/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 68.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 61% is 4.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 36% is 4.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 25% is 4.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 21% is 4.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952015 INVEST 10/08/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##