* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952015 10/09/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 38 44 55 70 83 88 95 97 101 104 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 38 44 55 70 83 88 95 97 101 104 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 31 34 38 47 63 84 102 114 118 117 116 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 2 1 4 6 4 6 4 6 3 9 4 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -1 -2 -4 -4 -6 -2 -6 -4 -1 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 245 218 324 40 82 132 83 95 88 107 334 343 49 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.3 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 164 164 166 166 164 162 159 156 154 152 151 150 149 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -52.1 -52.3 -51.5 -52.0 -51.4 -51.7 -51.0 -51.4 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 9 10 10 9 8 9 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 77 77 77 73 72 66 61 64 62 62 56 57 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 11 13 13 13 16 20 19 23 24 27 28 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -13 -8 -8 -10 -15 15 34 48 53 51 50 61 200 MB DIV 92 93 71 39 38 43 54 58 62 48 75 42 72 700-850 TADV 0 1 2 4 3 3 2 0 0 0 -1 0 3 LAND (KM) 2408 2517 2619 2463 2308 2046 1813 1604 1426 1311 1241 1173 1078 LAT (DEG N) 10.1 10.4 10.6 10.9 11.1 11.3 11.4 11.4 11.6 11.7 12.1 12.8 14.2 LONG(DEG W) 129.0 130.6 132.2 133.7 135.1 137.7 140.1 142.4 144.3 145.6 146.1 146.3 146.3 STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 15 14 13 12 12 10 8 4 4 5 7 HEAT CONTENT 26 25 29 39 44 19 20 20 27 27 30 34 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 493 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 23. 30. 33. 35. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 4. 5. 6. 11. 16. 16. 21. 23. 27. 28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 13. 19. 30. 45. 58. 63. 70. 72. 76. 79. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952015 INVEST 10/09/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 71% is 5.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 48% is 5.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 29% is 4.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 29% is 7.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952015 INVEST 10/09/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##