* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952015 10/09/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 32 37 43 54 70 85 92 93 92 97 99 V (KT) LAND 25 27 32 37 43 54 70 85 92 93 92 97 99 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 33 42 57 76 94 105 106 104 102 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 1 5 6 3 4 5 2 2 4 6 1 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -3 -3 -2 -6 -1 0 -2 0 -3 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 213 309 35 71 131 110 76 55 145 247 304 8 51 SST (C) 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 164 164 166 165 163 160 156 155 152 150 150 148 146 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -51.6 -51.9 -51.6 -51.6 -51.3 -51.4 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 9 9 10 9 8 9 9 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 77 77 72 72 69 62 62 61 57 53 51 54 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 11 13 13 14 14 17 21 22 24 24 28 29 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -10 -13 -12 -13 -1 30 48 43 49 48 60 62 200 MB DIV 93 70 42 42 45 46 57 47 52 53 65 40 60 700-850 TADV 1 3 3 3 4 2 1 0 0 0 -1 0 3 LAND (KM) 2497 2595 2505 2352 2200 1945 1764 1590 1409 1288 1227 1151 1086 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 130.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 14 14 13 11 9 8 7 4 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 25 28 36 46 29 20 20 21 31 29 23 17 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 503 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 23. 29. 33. 35. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 4. 7. 8. 5. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 11. 17. 19. 22. 23. 27. 28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 7. 12. 18. 29. 45. 60. 67. 68. 67. 72. 74. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952015 INVEST 10/09/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952015 INVEST 10/09/15 06 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING