* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952015 10/09/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 44 48 59 69 76 83 83 81 80 80 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 44 48 59 69 76 83 83 81 80 80 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 38 42 48 60 71 82 91 94 92 87 81 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 6 7 8 8 3 8 3 5 8 8 5 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -3 -5 -5 -1 0 -2 0 2 3 6 SHEAR DIR 58 56 98 138 151 171 187 131 190 239 260 254 229 SST (C) 29.7 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.4 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 163 166 164 163 162 159 155 154 151 150 149 147 139 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.8 -52.2 -52.3 -52.6 -51.8 -51.8 -51.4 -51.6 -51.2 -51.7 -51.4 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 10 10 10 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 72 69 70 65 62 57 58 56 52 50 51 53 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 11 12 12 14 16 18 21 24 24 24 25 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -15 -16 -17 -19 16 41 57 60 58 55 50 46 200 MB DIV 63 21 14 11 29 31 57 49 48 52 47 48 54 700-850 TADV 3 6 7 6 5 4 1 0 0 0 1 4 9 LAND (KM) 2544 2523 2377 2232 2088 1852 1645 1484 1348 1247 1175 1105 1067 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 131.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 13 11 9 7 5 4 5 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 28 35 46 33 20 19 20 26 31 23 17 16 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 502 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 27. 30. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 10. 10. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -2. -5. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 5. 9. 12. 16. 19. 21. 20. 22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 18. 29. 39. 46. 53. 53. 51. 50. 50. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952015 INVEST 10/09/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 49% is 3.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 31% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 17% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952015 INVEST 10/09/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##