* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHTEEN EP182015 10/09/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 39 43 52 61 72 77 77 75 71 73 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 39 43 52 61 72 77 77 75 71 73 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 35 39 43 52 61 69 75 78 79 76 71 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 7 6 4 5 3 2 2 11 13 11 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -3 -4 -6 0 1 0 -1 1 3 0 2 SHEAR DIR 68 94 128 144 159 186 199 117 333 268 251 240 194 SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.5 28.2 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 165 164 163 163 162 157 155 153 152 151 147 146 140 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -51.8 -52.0 -51.7 -51.8 -51.4 -51.8 -51.9 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 10 10 9 8 8 8 9 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 70 70 67 62 59 58 57 56 56 53 55 57 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 12 12 15 17 21 21 22 23 22 24 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -16 -13 -9 7 37 56 62 56 53 50 37 17 200 MB DIV 38 22 19 26 31 29 44 47 56 52 22 58 99 700-850 TADV 6 4 5 3 3 2 0 0 -2 -2 1 4 6 LAND (KM) 2540 2416 2293 2164 2035 1781 1611 1481 1354 1235 1126 1117 1224 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.0 11.2 11.4 11.5 11.8 12.0 12.2 12.8 13.7 14.8 16.0 17.4 LONG(DEG W) 132.9 134.0 135.2 136.5 137.7 140.2 141.9 143.2 144.2 144.9 145.4 144.9 143.4 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 12 12 12 10 7 6 6 6 5 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 27 36 38 23 18 20 19 21 29 20 15 13 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 516 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 21. 27. 30. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. -12. -12. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 6. 10. 15. 16. 17. 19. 17. 20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 22. 31. 42. 47. 47. 45. 41. 43. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182015 EIGHTEEN 10/09/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182015 EIGHTEEN 10/09/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##