* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962015 10/09/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 37 42 46 48 46 45 45 45 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 37 42 46 48 46 45 45 45 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 33 35 36 37 37 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 0 3 3 1 4 8 8 5 8 9 11 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 0 1 3 3 1 0 0 4 2 1 0 SHEAR DIR 312 258 268 289 279 299 328 301 277 243 245 247 269 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 161 161 160 163 163 162 163 163 162 162 160 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.1 -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 76 78 79 79 77 76 73 73 69 67 64 62 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 7 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 32 27 28 20 11 7 3 0 5 4 6 1 200 MB DIV 75 86 81 69 45 17 36 35 47 33 26 45 10 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 2 2 0 0 -3 -3 -4 -3 -4 -9 LAND (KM) 605 613 627 658 705 706 723 787 854 952 1097 1280 1457 LAT (DEG N) 8.6 8.8 9.0 9.2 9.3 9.6 10.0 10.4 10.7 10.9 11.1 11.2 11.2 LONG(DEG W) 92.3 93.1 94.0 95.0 96.0 98.3 100.6 103.0 105.3 107.8 110.6 113.4 116.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 10 10 12 11 12 12 13 14 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 17 18 23 29 29 25 26 25 37 47 27 43 40 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 514 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 23. 30. 34. 37. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -16. -19. -20. -21. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -12. -12. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 17. 21. 23. 21. 20. 20. 20. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962015 INVEST 10/09/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962015 INVEST 10/09/15 18 UTC ## ##