* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHTEEN EP182015 10/10/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 44 48 57 64 71 74 70 69 66 64 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 44 48 57 64 71 74 70 69 66 64 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 41 44 48 56 64 71 76 76 73 68 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 7 4 2 4 3 6 3 14 16 19 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -6 -8 -4 0 -1 -2 2 5 3 2 5 SHEAR DIR 121 136 152 187 191 181 150 175 251 276 251 222 203 SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.4 27.8 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 165 163 162 161 159 155 153 151 150 150 148 142 137 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -51.8 -51.9 -51.6 -51.6 -51.2 -51.7 -51.5 -52.2 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 9 10 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 68 65 61 59 56 57 55 54 53 51 51 55 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 12 13 16 17 19 21 20 21 21 22 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -11 -8 7 18 39 58 63 56 55 44 36 21 200 MB DIV 22 11 16 19 19 43 68 57 61 38 57 81 109 700-850 TADV 5 3 3 2 2 0 0 0 0 -1 3 7 6 LAND (KM) 2362 2232 2103 1979 1856 1654 1499 1367 1279 1196 1129 1148 1258 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.4 11.5 11.7 11.8 11.9 12.2 12.6 13.0 13.9 15.3 16.8 18.3 LONG(DEG W) 134.5 135.8 137.0 138.2 139.4 141.5 143.0 144.2 144.9 145.2 145.1 144.3 142.9 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 12 12 11 9 7 5 4 6 8 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 41 30 20 17 19 19 20 29 26 18 15 10 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 472 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 20. 24. 26. 27. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 10. 9. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 8. 12. 14. 14. 16. 15. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 22. 29. 36. 39. 35. 34. 31. 29. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182015 EIGHTEEN 10/10/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182015 EIGHTEEN 10/10/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##