* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962015 10/10/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 31 34 40 49 58 65 65 68 69 71 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 31 34 40 49 58 65 65 68 69 71 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 32 35 40 47 55 61 65 68 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 5 4 3 3 4 4 2 3 3 1 4 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 2 3 4 3 0 0 2 2 1 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 343 303 307 336 9 340 38 69 192 269 251 287 322 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 157 159 159 158 159 160 160 160 161 162 161 160 156 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 -52.0 -52.5 -52.1 -52.6 -52.2 -52.5 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 78 79 81 79 78 78 74 72 69 67 64 64 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 10 11 12 14 15 16 850 MB ENV VOR 31 21 24 18 14 15 14 -3 -11 -10 -1 3 0 200 MB DIV 88 91 65 50 30 13 42 34 27 19 46 40 35 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 649 676 708 759 782 792 826 908 990 1111 1273 1499 1659 LAT (DEG N) 8.3 8.4 8.5 8.6 8.7 9.0 9.4 9.6 9.8 10.0 10.2 10.2 10.2 LONG(DEG W) 92.7 93.7 94.7 95.8 97.0 99.4 101.6 103.9 106.4 109.1 112.1 115.2 118.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 10 11 12 11 11 12 12 14 15 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 17 20 26 30 24 26 22 24 43 44 33 43 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 23. 29. 33. 36. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 1. -2. -5. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. -12. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 13. 14. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 9. 15. 24. 33. 40. 40. 43. 44. 46. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962015 INVEST 10/10/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962015 INVEST 10/10/15 00 UTC ## ##