* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORA EP182015 10/10/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 44 46 53 58 62 59 58 55 56 51 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 44 46 53 58 62 59 58 55 56 51 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 40 43 46 52 57 59 60 59 57 53 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 7 5 7 2 5 6 8 10 17 23 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -5 -6 -5 -3 0 -1 -1 4 8 5 3 3 SHEAR DIR 126 146 169 161 176 221 222 249 277 272 241 230 209 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.2 27.4 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 163 162 161 160 157 154 152 150 149 149 146 138 136 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -51.7 -51.6 -51.8 -51.7 -51.9 -51.6 -51.8 -51.9 -52.3 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 10 9 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 65 61 57 55 55 55 51 48 49 52 54 53 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 12 12 14 16 18 17 19 17 20 18 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -7 5 13 19 43 54 64 56 58 50 20 -1 200 MB DIV 17 18 22 20 22 27 38 28 43 41 51 76 80 700-850 TADV 2 3 5 4 2 0 0 0 -1 0 4 8 6 LAND (KM) 2220 2088 1956 1841 1728 1544 1405 1297 1224 1163 1137 1215 1373 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.7 11.9 11.9 11.9 12.2 12.7 13.0 13.3 14.3 16.0 17.8 19.3 LONG(DEG W) 135.8 137.1 138.3 139.5 140.7 142.5 143.7 144.7 145.3 145.3 144.7 143.4 141.7 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 12 12 10 8 6 4 3 7 10 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 29 19 17 19 20 19 25 27 22 17 13 14 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 457 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 27. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -9. -11. -13. -15. -15. -14. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 5. 7. 10. 9. 11. 10. 13. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 18. 23. 27. 24. 23. 20. 21. 16. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182015 NORA 10/10/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 62.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182015 NORA 10/10/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##