* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962015 10/10/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 43 52 57 60 62 64 67 71 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 43 52 57 60 62 64 67 71 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 33 38 43 48 52 57 63 69 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 5 4 5 6 4 1 2 5 2 2 5 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 1 3 0 2 0 1 0 1 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 329 336 4 8 355 24 359 223 270 304 251 310 329 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.2 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 158 157 160 160 160 161 161 161 160 158 155 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 -52.2 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 6 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 78 79 79 78 78 75 73 70 68 66 69 64 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 9 10 11 13 14 16 850 MB ENV VOR 20 22 16 12 13 18 4 -4 -9 -5 10 7 16 200 MB DIV 93 65 37 15 2 32 33 22 22 46 75 33 36 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 -1 0 0 -3 -5 LAND (KM) 695 730 777 795 804 816 869 953 1043 1180 1355 1562 1721 LAT (DEG N) 8.3 8.4 8.5 8.6 8.7 9.1 9.5 9.7 9.9 10.1 10.2 10.2 10.1 LONG(DEG W) 93.9 95.0 96.0 97.1 98.3 100.6 102.8 105.1 107.7 110.4 113.3 116.3 119.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 12 11 11 12 13 14 14 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 21 27 30 24 23 24 23 28 43 37 39 42 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 23. 29. 33. 36. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. -1. -5. -6. -8. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 7. 8. 11. 13. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 18. 27. 32. 35. 37. 39. 42. 46. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962015 INVEST 10/10/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962015 INVEST 10/10/15 06 UTC ## ##