* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORA EP182015 10/10/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 42 43 43 47 49 49 46 44 41 37 34 V (KT) LAND 40 41 42 43 43 47 49 49 46 44 41 37 34 V (KT) LGE mod 40 42 44 46 47 50 52 53 54 51 47 42 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 3 4 8 8 3 7 7 15 15 25 27 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -2 -1 -1 -3 -6 -1 2 2 0 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 137 156 148 171 201 180 216 269 270 253 241 229 232 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.5 27.9 27.5 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 162 161 159 158 155 153 152 150 150 148 143 139 137 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.1 -51.6 -51.6 -51.8 -51.8 -52.1 -51.8 -51.9 -51.9 -52.4 -52.6 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 58 55 53 51 54 53 49 50 54 55 55 53 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 11 11 12 11 12 11 11 11 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR -8 8 11 15 28 44 49 52 41 40 21 -10 -34 200 MB DIV 22 19 24 17 8 20 13 35 18 35 53 61 27 700-850 TADV 2 7 6 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 1 LAND (KM) 2136 2012 1889 1788 1689 1517 1396 1297 1202 1148 1182 1285 1419 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.8 11.9 12.0 12.1 12.5 12.7 13.0 13.8 15.1 16.7 17.9 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 136.6 137.8 139.0 140.0 141.0 142.6 143.8 144.7 145.2 145.0 144.0 142.7 141.3 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 10 9 7 6 4 6 8 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 19 15 16 18 19 24 32 33 22 17 16 30 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 492 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 22. 23. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -13. -14. -14. -14. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -9. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 7. 9. 9. 6. 4. 1. -3. -6. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182015 NORA 10/10/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182015 NORA 10/10/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##