* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962015 10/10/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 46 56 60 64 69 73 80 85 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 46 56 60 64 69 73 80 85 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 30 35 41 48 55 62 69 80 92 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 10 10 10 6 1 4 7 1 3 4 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 1 0 0 0 -1 -1 1 -1 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 9 19 34 24 29 29 54 241 310 269 318 13 282 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 156 158 158 158 158 160 160 159 158 157 155 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.3 -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 -52.4 -52.0 -52.6 -52.0 -52.7 -51.8 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 10 9 700-500 MB RH 77 79 78 77 78 73 71 69 70 68 68 66 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 11 14 17 20 23 850 MB ENV VOR 18 12 1 7 13 18 -2 0 -3 3 14 14 22 200 MB DIV 60 38 20 7 16 42 42 37 58 70 64 29 63 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 -1 -1 -1 -5 -3 LAND (KM) 787 844 856 865 875 921 989 1065 1165 1298 1464 1641 1780 LAT (DEG N) 8.0 8.1 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.6 8.8 9.0 9.2 9.4 9.5 9.6 9.6 LONG(DEG W) 95.3 96.4 97.5 98.6 99.7 101.9 103.9 106.2 108.7 111.3 114.0 116.7 119.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 10 11 12 12 13 13 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 33 32 27 28 30 24 25 45 42 37 49 50 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 29. 33. 35. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 12. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 13. 17. 20. 25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 21. 31. 35. 39. 44. 48. 55. 60. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962015 INVEST 10/10/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962015 INVEST 10/10/15 12 UTC ## ##