* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORA EP182015 10/10/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 50 52 53 54 55 54 50 45 42 37 32 V (KT) LAND 45 48 50 52 53 54 55 54 50 45 42 37 32 V (KT) LGE mod 45 49 53 56 58 59 60 60 59 56 51 44 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 7 7 2 2 6 8 11 17 22 30 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -3 -1 -1 -1 -3 -4 0 0 2 1 2 0 SHEAR DIR 150 145 166 207 248 186 256 277 262 244 236 226 238 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.4 27.9 27.4 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 160 159 158 156 155 153 151 150 149 147 142 136 132 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.6 -51.6 -51.7 -51.9 -51.7 -52.0 -51.7 -51.8 -51.9 -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 55 52 52 53 54 52 50 51 52 55 55 53 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 14 13 12 12 12 12 11 11 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR 7 10 16 30 40 48 54 50 41 31 5 -17 -45 200 MB DIV 11 13 12 15 23 20 13 24 13 36 66 50 20 700-850 TADV 6 5 3 2 2 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 2 LAND (KM) 2005 1896 1788 1706 1624 1469 1360 1257 1154 1091 1064 1084 1103 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 11.9 12.0 12.1 12.1 12.4 12.7 13.2 14.0 15.1 16.6 17.6 18.2 LONG(DEG W) 137.9 139.0 140.0 140.9 141.7 143.2 144.2 145.0 145.6 145.6 145.2 144.7 144.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 8 8 6 5 5 5 7 6 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 15 16 18 19 21 27 34 29 20 16 13 13 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 12. 15. 18. 19. 19. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 4. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -14. -16. -17. -17. -16. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. 5. 0. -3. -8. -13. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182015 NORA 10/10/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182015 NORA 10/10/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##