* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962015 10/10/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 37 45 55 61 69 75 82 86 93 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 37 45 55 61 69 75 82 86 93 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 35 42 50 59 71 83 96 109 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 11 11 9 7 5 1 5 6 7 5 5 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -1 -2 0 -1 0 -1 -2 -4 -4 -5 SHEAR DIR 17 30 28 31 22 10 331 307 348 358 347 1 350 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 158 158 158 158 158 159 159 158 156 155 153 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.5 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 78 78 77 77 75 72 69 69 67 70 66 66 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 8 9 10 11 12 15 18 21 23 27 850 MB ENV VOR 9 0 8 15 22 12 5 8 5 17 23 29 29 200 MB DIV 44 29 25 32 52 46 43 74 50 68 31 73 81 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 -2 -2 -4 -5 -4 -1 LAND (KM) 845 852 868 880 905 970 1058 1151 1277 1425 1587 1730 1810 LAT (DEG N) 8.1 8.2 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.6 8.7 8.7 8.8 8.8 8.9 9.0 9.4 LONG(DEG W) 96.5 97.6 98.8 99.9 101.0 103.0 105.2 107.5 110.0 112.5 115.0 117.3 119.5 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 10 10 11 12 12 12 12 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 31 27 28 30 25 25 34 43 46 43 40 43 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 23. 29. 33. 35. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 12. 15. 21. 24. 29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 12. 20. 30. 36. 44. 50. 57. 61. 68. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962015 INVEST 10/10/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962015 INVEST 10/10/15 18 UTC ## ##