* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORA EP182015 10/11/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 49 50 51 52 56 54 52 48 45 42 40 V (KT) LAND 45 47 49 50 51 52 56 54 52 48 45 42 40 V (KT) LGE mod 45 47 50 51 52 53 53 54 53 49 46 42 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 5 3 2 6 8 8 10 15 21 23 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 2 2 2 -3 0 5 7 5 1 2 2 SHEAR DIR 157 180 204 261 246 229 308 287 246 224 223 221 222 SST (C) 29.4 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.3 28.0 27.6 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 159 157 155 155 154 153 152 150 149 146 143 138 134 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.5 -51.5 -51.6 -51.4 -52.0 -51.5 -51.7 -51.4 -51.9 -51.8 -52.3 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 52 51 55 55 54 53 53 53 55 57 57 53 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 15 15 15 14 17 16 17 16 16 16 16 850 MB ENV VOR 10 18 31 39 46 53 57 52 45 31 8 -12 -13 200 MB DIV 1 8 16 25 23 4 31 26 42 56 95 63 29 700-850 TADV 7 5 3 0 0 0 -2 -1 2 3 5 5 2 LAND (KM) 1867 1771 1675 1599 1525 1405 1284 1169 1067 1029 1055 1092 1138 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.7 11.7 11.8 11.8 11.9 12.3 13.1 14.1 15.2 16.3 17.3 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 139.4 140.4 141.4 142.2 143.0 144.3 145.4 146.1 146.5 146.2 145.4 144.7 144.1 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 5 6 6 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 17 18 19 21 23 31 33 30 22 18 14 13 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 12. 15. 18. 19. 19. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. -17. -18. -18. -17. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 6. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 11. 9. 7. 3. 0. -3. -5. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182015 NORA 10/11/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182015 NORA 10/11/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##