* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962015 10/11/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 36 42 49 54 64 70 75 83 87 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 36 42 49 54 64 70 75 83 87 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 34 39 44 51 60 72 86 98 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 11 8 5 3 4 7 3 4 4 2 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -4 -1 0 0 1 0 -1 -3 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 23 23 26 20 7 314 294 308 15 326 2 139 24 SST (C) 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.9 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 156 158 159 158 159 158 160 161 160 159 157 155 157 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -51.9 -52.3 -51.8 -52.5 -51.8 -52.5 -51.7 -52.1 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 77 77 77 74 71 69 68 66 67 67 63 64 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 9 9 9 10 11 14 17 19 23 25 850 MB ENV VOR 0 8 16 22 17 3 4 -8 -6 3 9 16 25 200 MB DIV 25 16 23 45 53 35 39 43 66 43 50 59 104 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 -2 -3 -1 -6 -3 -5 LAND (KM) 854 856 860 871 893 960 1026 1125 1254 1431 1606 1751 1916 LAT (DEG N) 8.1 8.3 8.4 8.6 8.7 9.0 9.3 9.5 9.8 9.9 10.0 10.1 10.4 LONG(DEG W) 97.4 98.5 99.5 100.5 101.5 103.7 106.0 108.5 111.2 114.0 116.8 119.6 122.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 11 12 13 13 14 14 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 28 28 29 27 24 24 44 42 34 50 56 39 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 23. 29. 33. 36. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 11. 15. 18. 24. 26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 17. 24. 29. 39. 45. 50. 58. 62. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962015 INVEST 10/11/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962015 INVEST 10/11/15 00 UTC ## ##