* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORA EP182015 10/11/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 54 55 56 57 58 54 50 43 40 36 34 V (KT) LAND 50 52 54 55 56 57 58 54 50 43 40 36 34 V (KT) LGE mod 50 52 54 54 54 54 55 55 53 48 44 40 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 3 2 6 10 11 12 17 22 20 22 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 4 2 0 -3 1 4 2 2 4 0 0 SHEAR DIR 189 214 248 251 213 271 282 270 244 228 223 229 229 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.2 28.0 27.6 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 157 155 155 154 153 151 151 150 148 144 142 138 134 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.5 -51.5 -51.3 -51.5 -51.7 -51.4 -51.7 -51.7 -52.2 -52.1 -52.6 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 52 53 53 53 50 50 53 52 56 54 53 51 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 14 14 14 14 16 14 15 13 13 13 14 850 MB ENV VOR 19 32 41 46 47 55 57 53 43 16 -4 -42 -20 200 MB DIV 4 9 20 24 25 14 27 26 53 67 76 29 13 700-850 TADV 5 2 0 0 0 -2 -2 0 1 4 4 2 0 LAND (KM) 1743 1657 1572 1497 1424 1315 1220 1107 1036 1004 1041 1074 1121 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 11.9 11.9 12.0 12.0 12.1 12.5 13.5 14.6 15.7 16.4 17.2 17.8 LONG(DEG W) 140.6 141.5 142.4 143.2 144.0 145.2 146.0 146.5 146.5 146.2 145.5 144.9 144.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 8 7 5 5 6 6 5 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 18 20 21 24 31 32 31 28 20 19 14 13 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 13. 15. 15. 15. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -15. -18. -19. -20. -19. -19. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 2. 3. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 4. 0. -7. -10. -14. -16. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182015 NORA 10/11/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 65.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182015 NORA 10/11/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##