* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962015 10/11/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 42 49 55 62 68 73 82 88 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 42 49 55 62 68 73 82 88 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 34 38 43 50 59 70 83 97 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 9 8 6 3 6 7 5 6 4 2 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -3 0 2 0 -1 -1 2 -2 1 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 31 32 36 25 354 345 307 323 348 337 336 27 111 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.9 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 157 157 158 158 159 160 159 158 157 155 159 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 7 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 78 78 75 73 70 66 67 65 66 64 65 65 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 9 9 9 9 10 11 13 15 18 22 25 850 MB ENV VOR 3 17 23 20 13 0 -2 -6 0 11 16 21 28 200 MB DIV 32 42 55 69 62 19 49 62 63 32 40 37 75 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 0 0 2 -1 -3 -3 -5 -5 -4 -5 LAND (KM) 910 912 922 948 978 1045 1108 1210 1342 1530 1682 1858 2050 LAT (DEG N) 7.8 8.0 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.6 8.9 9.2 9.5 9.7 9.9 10.0 10.1 LONG(DEG W) 98.7 99.7 100.6 101.6 102.5 104.7 107.0 109.5 112.2 115.1 118.1 121.1 124.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 9 10 11 12 13 14 14 15 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 29 30 27 24 25 29 45 43 38 49 52 42 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 29. 33. 35. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 9. 12. 16. 22. 25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 17. 24. 30. 37. 43. 48. 57. 63. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962015 INVEST 10/11/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962015 INVEST 10/11/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##