* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORA EP182015 10/11/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 61 62 62 62 57 52 45 37 33 28 24 V (KT) LAND 55 58 61 62 62 62 57 52 45 37 33 28 24 V (KT) LGE mod 55 59 61 62 63 62 59 55 50 44 39 34 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 7 7 11 13 13 17 19 20 24 26 23 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 -1 -4 0 1 2 4 4 2 1 1 SHEAR DIR 208 234 244 241 240 270 270 258 248 242 238 233 237 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.5 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 156 154 154 153 153 151 148 146 143 141 138 136 135 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.7 -51.4 -51.6 -51.7 -51.3 -51.5 -51.6 -51.9 -52.0 -52.3 -52.4 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 9 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 52 51 50 49 48 51 53 53 56 55 56 59 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 14 13 14 13 13 13 12 12 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 34 43 50 51 50 50 45 39 27 -2 -30 -41 -34 200 MB DIV 0 17 29 45 26 14 17 35 54 48 25 28 0 700-850 TADV 3 0 0 0 -1 -3 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1614 1523 1433 1363 1295 1158 1027 938 882 851 845 885 946 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.3 12.4 12.5 12.5 12.9 13.8 14.6 15.2 15.9 16.6 17.1 17.4 LONG(DEG W) 141.8 142.7 143.6 144.3 145.1 146.4 147.2 147.6 147.8 147.7 147.4 146.8 146.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 7 7 6 5 4 4 4 4 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 19 22 28 33 33 28 27 24 24 23 20 16 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -13. -17. -19. -21. -21. -21. -20. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 7. 7. 7. 2. -3. -10. -18. -22. -27. -31. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182015 NORA 10/11/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 89.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182015 NORA 10/11/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##