* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962015 10/11/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 36 43 50 58 62 65 71 75 77 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 32 36 43 50 58 62 65 71 75 77 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 34 39 45 51 58 67 78 87 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 9 8 6 5 2 4 3 4 2 2 2 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -1 1 0 -1 0 3 1 -1 1 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 34 33 28 18 25 308 306 356 297 330 319 172 233 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.2 28.9 29.1 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 158 158 158 159 160 160 161 159 155 157 159 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 -51.9 -52.5 -52.0 -52.4 -51.8 -52.3 -51.8 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 11 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 77 75 72 70 68 65 65 64 63 62 63 63 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 9 9 9 8 9 9 11 11 12 15 18 20 850 MB ENV VOR 17 22 18 6 -2 -3 -15 -11 -7 -1 6 13 38 200 MB DIV 44 51 63 57 41 34 35 41 24 37 20 25 55 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 0 0 1 -2 -3 0 -2 -3 0 0 LAND (KM) 910 915 927 959 991 1044 1114 1227 1391 1556 1712 1905 2073 LAT (DEG N) 8.0 8.2 8.4 8.6 8.7 9.1 9.5 9.9 10.2 10.5 10.6 10.8 11.0 LONG(DEG W) 99.8 100.7 101.6 102.7 103.7 105.9 108.3 110.9 113.8 116.8 119.7 122.7 125.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 10 10 10 12 12 14 14 15 14 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 23 20 19 22 24 43 41 34 52 58 41 38 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 23. 29. 33. 35. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 12. 15. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 11. 18. 25. 33. 37. 40. 46. 50. 52. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962015 INVEST 10/11/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962015 INVEST 10/11/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##