* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORA EP182015 10/11/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 64 65 64 60 53 47 38 29 25 20 DIS V (KT) LAND 60 63 64 65 64 60 53 47 38 29 25 20 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 63 65 66 65 61 55 49 41 34 29 24 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 15 14 14 15 20 22 30 29 23 28 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 -1 -4 0 4 2 3 5 6 1 1 0 SHEAR DIR 213 223 230 231 242 251 265 247 240 238 232 221 226 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.1 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 152 152 150 149 146 143 141 138 135 131 129 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.3 -51.5 -51.5 -51.5 -51.2 -51.7 -51.8 -52.1 -52.0 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 9 9 10 9 10 9 9 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 49 47 46 44 44 47 48 51 49 50 50 48 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 14 14 14 13 13 13 11 11 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 45 50 52 54 57 52 45 36 9 -10 -24 -33 -50 200 MB DIV 18 45 60 33 21 15 8 45 33 27 16 -1 -13 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -1 0 1 3 2 1 0 -1 LAND (KM) 1481 1390 1299 1223 1148 1012 879 791 736 730 726 742 766 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.0 13.1 13.3 13.4 13.9 14.6 15.4 16.3 17.0 17.6 18.1 18.4 LONG(DEG W) 142.8 143.7 144.6 145.3 146.1 147.3 148.3 148.7 148.7 148.4 148.2 147.9 147.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 7 7 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 24 29 31 27 25 26 24 23 24 24 24 25 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 410 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -15. -17. -19. -19. -18. -18. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 5. 4. 0. -7. -13. -22. -31. -35. -40. -46. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182015 NORA 10/11/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 86.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182015 NORA 10/11/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##