* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORA EP182015 10/12/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 61 59 58 50 43 35 28 21 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 61 61 59 58 50 43 35 28 21 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 61 62 61 59 53 46 39 33 27 22 18 15 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 17 18 21 20 25 24 29 28 26 27 29 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -1 0 2 2 5 2 6 10 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 212 215 221 237 248 265 254 246 246 235 236 246 247 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.0 27.7 27.6 27.3 26.8 26.5 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 150 149 148 145 141 137 137 134 129 126 124 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.4 -51.3 -51.4 -51.2 -51.4 -51.7 -52.1 -52.0 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 10 9 9 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 44 42 42 39 40 44 47 48 46 50 49 45 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 15 14 14 13 13 12 12 10 9 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 47 51 56 54 53 55 38 28 2 -32 -30 -47 -49 200 MB DIV 35 63 34 0 6 8 26 66 67 12 22 4 -15 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 0 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 1387 1291 1196 1126 1057 942 855 826 838 848 846 891 942 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.6 13.9 14.2 14.4 15.1 16.0 16.6 17.0 17.6 18.6 19.3 19.9 LONG(DEG W) 143.5 144.4 145.2 145.8 146.4 147.2 147.6 147.6 147.3 147.0 146.8 146.3 145.8 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 7 6 6 5 4 3 3 4 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 27 26 19 18 19 22 22 21 19 16 15 6 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 490 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -17. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. -16. -16. -15. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. -1. -2. -10. -17. -25. -32. -39. -45. -52. -56. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182015 NORA 10/12/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182015 NORA 10/12/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##