* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962015 10/12/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 33 36 46 55 60 65 66 71 75 82 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 33 36 46 55 60 65 66 71 75 82 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 36 44 53 61 67 74 85 99 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 12 10 8 6 4 1 4 3 3 5 6 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -3 -5 -2 1 3 0 -1 0 -5 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 29 31 39 37 22 61 310 264 218 267 162 189 223 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 158 159 160 161 161 162 159 157 159 159 160 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -51.9 -52.4 -52.0 -52.3 -51.8 -52.2 -51.8 -52.2 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 10 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 72 71 71 66 65 66 63 61 61 61 60 59 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 11 12 15 17 22 850 MB ENV VOR 20 11 2 -2 -4 -20 -18 -13 -11 -17 6 27 56 200 MB DIV 68 58 51 51 40 47 32 19 51 32 48 65 75 700-850 TADV -1 0 1 1 -1 1 0 2 1 -2 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 921 943 965 991 1012 1066 1171 1319 1457 1579 1733 1875 2042 LAT (DEG N) 8.6 8.8 9.0 9.2 9.4 10.0 10.5 11.0 11.4 11.8 12.2 12.5 12.9 LONG(DEG W) 101.9 102.8 103.8 104.8 105.9 108.3 110.9 113.7 116.6 119.3 122.0 124.5 127.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 12 13 13 14 14 13 13 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 19 22 23 28 44 43 28 55 43 31 28 19 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 664 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 23. 29. 33. 36. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 6. 3. 0. -3. -4. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 11. 14. 20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 11. 21. 30. 35. 40. 41. 46. 50. 57. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962015 INVEST 10/12/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962015 INVEST 10/12/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##