* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORA EP182015 10/12/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 57 54 50 46 37 32 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 57 54 50 46 37 32 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 59 57 54 51 45 37 31 25 19 15 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 17 21 23 19 20 21 30 28 30 35 35 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 1 5 6 5 3 10 1 -1 1 0 SHEAR DIR 215 222 236 250 247 265 252 245 243 242 242 255 258 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.4 26.8 26.4 26.3 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 151 150 148 146 144 141 137 131 127 125 124 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.5 -51.6 -51.3 -51.3 -51.5 -51.6 -52.0 -52.0 -52.6 -52.4 -52.8 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 7 7 700-500 MB RH 47 46 43 43 44 45 49 49 49 48 47 42 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 14 15 15 14 14 12 12 9 8 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 52 51 51 52 59 51 41 12 -10 -49 -45 -66 -67 200 MB DIV 72 55 13 0 10 7 39 43 24 25 23 3 -59 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 1 5 5 5 2 0 1 0 -1 LAND (KM) 1373 1293 1213 1142 1071 982 912 873 878 929 1047 1169 1275 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.9 13.2 13.6 13.9 14.6 15.3 16.2 17.3 18.6 19.9 21.0 21.9 LONG(DEG W) 144.2 144.9 145.5 146.0 146.6 147.1 147.4 147.3 146.8 146.0 144.8 143.7 142.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 5 7 8 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 33 33 27 23 23 22 22 21 15 8 7 5 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -19. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -12. -15. -17. -17. -17. -16. -14. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -2. -7. -6. -10. -11. -14. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -6. -10. -14. -23. -28. -39. -44. -51. -55. -62. -66. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182015 NORA 10/12/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 0.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182015 NORA 10/12/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##