* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962015 10/12/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 32 41 49 56 60 62 63 65 69 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 32 41 49 56 60 62 63 65 69 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 33 40 49 57 61 64 68 75 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 11 10 9 4 2 3 6 4 2 6 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -5 -3 0 2 4 0 0 2 -2 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 31 36 40 44 51 22 34 236 251 301 258 286 267 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.4 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 159 160 161 162 162 162 160 158 159 159 158 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 -52.1 -52.0 -51.9 -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 9 9 10 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 71 71 66 64 64 63 60 58 58 58 58 54 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 9 10 11 12 13 16 850 MB ENV VOR 5 -2 -7 -11 -12 -20 -16 -8 -12 -12 3 15 44 200 MB DIV 55 35 36 26 32 26 12 29 55 24 29 26 60 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 -2 0 0 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 910 927 944 958 973 1055 1160 1321 1420 1547 1679 1802 1934 LAT (DEG N) 9.1 9.4 9.6 9.9 10.1 10.6 11.1 11.6 12.0 12.4 12.8 13.3 13.8 LONG(DEG W) 102.8 103.7 104.7 105.7 106.7 109.1 111.6 114.3 117.0 119.6 122.0 124.4 126.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 11 12 13 13 13 12 12 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 21 23 27 42 57 45 23 66 32 29 24 20 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 676 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 15. 23. 30. 34. 36. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 6. 3. 1. -3. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 16. 24. 31. 35. 37. 38. 40. 44. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962015 INVEST 10/12/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 34.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962015 INVEST 10/12/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##