* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORA EP182015 10/12/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 50 45 40 34 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 50 45 40 34 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 52 48 45 41 35 30 25 21 18 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 24 25 29 28 25 31 34 25 20 23 25 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 2 2 5 1 2 4 4 2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 224 239 251 255 267 259 246 252 253 240 236 233 239 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.8 27.6 27.7 27.6 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 152 150 149 149 149 146 145 143 138 136 137 137 135 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.5 -51.2 -51.2 -51.3 -51.4 -51.7 -51.8 -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 9 10 10 10 8 8 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 46 43 44 44 46 47 49 47 54 60 61 54 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 15 14 13 13 14 12 14 13 12 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR 58 55 55 56 55 44 23 -6 -29 -39 -37 -49 -43 200 MB DIV 63 17 12 -4 -1 27 54 43 45 54 5 -8 -4 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 -1 0 3 2 5 0 -1 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 1280 1211 1142 1060 978 823 756 729 720 696 625 568 522 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.8 13.0 13.4 13.8 14.8 15.8 16.8 17.5 17.9 17.9 18.1 18.7 LONG(DEG W) 145.2 145.9 146.5 147.2 147.8 148.8 148.8 148.5 148.3 148.4 149.1 149.6 149.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 2 2 2 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 31 26 25 26 26 22 22 23 23 26 28 28 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -16. -18. -18. -18. -18. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -12. -15. -17. -18. -18. -17. -17. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -1. -5. -1. -4. -5. -8. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -15. -21. -29. -35. -44. -45. -49. -52. -56. -60. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182015 NORA 10/12/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 23.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182015 NORA 10/12/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##