* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962015 10/12/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 29 33 39 46 51 54 57 58 62 69 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 29 33 39 46 51 54 57 58 62 69 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 29 34 41 48 55 59 64 70 79 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 10 9 8 5 4 4 5 8 1 6 7 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -7 -2 1 2 1 2 -1 0 -2 -6 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 33 34 36 36 43 22 345 286 288 290 242 244 223 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.4 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 161 162 163 162 163 160 157 157 158 158 155 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.0 -51.8 -52.1 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 -51.9 -52.3 -51.8 -52.1 -51.7 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 10 11 11 11 11 10 9 8 700-500 MB RH 70 67 64 65 66 61 61 59 59 58 59 56 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 10 11 12 14 18 23 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -7 -11 -12 -17 -20 -19 -11 -12 -5 6 24 51 200 MB DIV 33 35 20 20 12 17 10 45 17 48 38 77 93 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 0 1 0 4 0 0 3 -1 -3 -4 LAND (KM) 908 936 953 980 1018 1124 1280 1398 1526 1685 1825 2005 2172 LAT (DEG N) 9.6 9.8 10.0 10.3 10.5 11.0 11.5 12.0 12.4 12.8 13.2 13.5 13.8 LONG(DEG W) 103.9 105.0 106.0 107.2 108.3 110.9 113.7 116.6 119.3 122.1 124.6 127.2 129.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 12 12 13 14 14 13 13 13 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 26 32 51 57 53 26 54 34 26 21 18 25 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 683 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 23. 30. 34. 36. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 4. 2. 0. -3. -5. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 10. 15. 22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -15. -16. -17. -18. -17. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 8. 14. 21. 26. 29. 32. 33. 37. 44. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962015 INVEST 10/12/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962015 INVEST 10/12/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##