* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORA EP182015 10/12/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 44 39 34 28 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 44 39 34 28 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 46 42 38 35 29 24 20 17 15 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 25 28 27 29 31 36 30 25 25 23 27 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 5 4 2 4 0 5 2 1 0 2 3 SHEAR DIR 234 245 254 261 259 248 249 253 256 238 234 230 238 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.8 27.8 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 150 150 149 145 144 142 139 136 139 139 139 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.2 -51.4 -51.5 -51.6 -51.5 -51.9 -52.0 -52.2 -52.0 -52.5 -52.6 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 9 9 10 9 10 8 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 44 44 47 47 45 47 47 47 51 56 57 51 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 13 13 12 12 11 11 11 10 9 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 59 59 59 55 46 38 14 -12 -43 -33 -46 -41 -43 200 MB DIV 26 24 13 -2 12 20 36 22 39 32 7 -17 -28 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -2 0 2 2 2 0 -1 0 1 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 1189 1121 1054 976 899 768 704 644 596 541 499 445 375 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 12.9 13.0 13.4 13.8 14.9 15.8 16.8 17.6 18.0 17.6 17.4 17.3 LONG(DEG W) 146.2 146.9 147.6 148.2 148.8 149.4 149.4 149.4 149.5 149.9 150.5 151.2 152.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 5 4 5 3 2 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 25 26 27 26 23 20 22 25 28 29 31 31 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 700 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -18. -19. -20. -20. -20. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -16. -17. -18. -18. -18. -18. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -16. -22. -28. -36. -41. -43. -45. -47. -49. -51. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182015 NORA 10/12/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182015 NORA 10/12/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##