* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962015 10/12/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 20 22 25 32 41 47 52 55 59 62 68 V (KT) LAND 20 19 20 22 25 32 41 47 52 55 59 62 68 V (KT) LGE mod 20 19 18 19 20 23 28 33 38 42 47 53 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 9 5 5 5 3 4 5 3 8 10 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -3 0 1 1 3 0 -1 0 -4 -5 -5 -3 SHEAR DIR 43 42 43 46 33 18 350 293 308 266 262 251 257 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.6 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 162 163 162 161 162 158 157 158 157 155 154 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.8 -52.0 -52.3 -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 -51.9 -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 10 11 11 11 10 11 10 9 7 700-500 MB RH 67 64 65 67 64 61 58 60 59 60 57 53 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 11 13 16 20 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -15 -14 -21 -21 -20 -18 -15 -16 -3 6 24 53 200 MB DIV 24 17 21 22 28 7 22 31 23 36 49 73 76 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 1 1 0 4 2 2 2 -1 -1 -3 LAND (KM) 943 961 993 1034 1084 1206 1361 1469 1610 1732 1869 2021 2152 LAT (DEG N) 9.8 10.0 10.2 10.5 10.7 11.2 11.7 12.1 12.6 13.1 13.6 14.1 14.5 LONG(DEG W) 105.1 106.2 107.3 108.5 109.7 112.4 115.2 118.0 120.7 123.2 125.6 127.9 130.1 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 12 13 13 14 14 13 12 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 34 53 55 51 39 29 60 27 26 18 21 30 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 7. 15. 24. 32. 36. 39. 41. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 5. 3. 0. -3. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 10. 13. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -11. -12. -12. -13. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 2. 5. 12. 21. 27. 32. 35. 39. 42. 48. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962015 INVEST 10/12/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 141.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 46.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 19.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962015 INVEST 10/12/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##