* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORA EP182015 10/13/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 39 34 29 25 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 39 34 29 25 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 40 37 33 30 25 21 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 29 31 30 29 29 30 31 28 22 19 18 25 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 3 2 2 5 2 5 5 6 0 1 1 SHEAR DIR 247 254 262 254 253 257 259 260 245 245 237 241 237 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 148 147 144 143 141 140 140 141 141 142 143 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.4 -51.6 -51.6 -51.5 -51.8 -51.7 -52.1 -52.1 -52.5 -52.5 -53.0 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 45 44 46 44 46 47 43 46 54 56 52 52 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 13 13 13 12 12 11 11 10 9 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR 58 60 59 49 42 36 25 -4 -7 -10 -24 -24 -25 200 MB DIV 28 16 11 18 27 30 41 22 38 16 -7 -4 10 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 3 4 3 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1077 984 892 827 762 661 552 505 497 468 431 398 400 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.4 13.7 14.1 14.4 15.1 15.9 16.4 16.5 16.4 16.0 15.7 15.4 LONG(DEG W) 147.3 148.2 149.0 149.5 150.0 150.6 151.2 151.3 151.3 151.8 152.9 153.9 154.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 7 6 5 5 4 1 1 4 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 27 26 22 19 18 20 24 26 26 25 26 28 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 762 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 15. 15. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -6. -10. -14. -17. -18. -18. -17. -18. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -17. -19. -19. -20. -20. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -8. -7. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -16. -20. -28. -34. -39. -41. -41. -43. -45. -47. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182015 NORA 10/13/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182015 NORA 10/13/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##