* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962015 10/13/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 22 25 33 45 50 57 59 61 63 67 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 22 25 33 45 50 57 59 61 63 67 V (KT) LGE mod 20 19 18 19 19 22 27 33 40 45 49 55 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 9 7 6 6 1 4 0 4 5 7 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 2 3 4 1 2 1 0 -4 0 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 38 41 45 49 53 51 115 285 201 242 245 247 248 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 163 163 162 162 161 157 157 158 157 155 154 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.9 -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -52.0 -52.2 -51.9 -52.2 -51.8 -52.3 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 10 10 10 9 8 7 700-500 MB RH 62 64 66 64 61 61 57 59 61 58 56 54 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 10 11 12 14 17 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -15 -18 -21 -21 -16 -17 -19 -10 4 21 46 73 200 MB DIV 7 12 20 14 13 10 26 6 35 35 57 55 82 700-850 TADV -1 -1 1 2 2 3 2 3 4 0 0 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 953 985 1028 1079 1127 1280 1392 1515 1662 1781 1925 2061 2167 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.2 10.4 10.7 10.9 11.4 11.9 12.3 12.7 13.2 13.6 14.1 14.6 LONG(DEG W) 106.0 107.2 108.3 109.6 110.8 113.6 116.3 119.0 121.6 124.0 126.3 128.4 130.4 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 12 13 13 14 13 13 12 12 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 51 56 51 42 27 52 38 26 24 18 23 30 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 664 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 7. 15. 24. 32. 36. 39. 41. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 9. 7. 5. 2. -1. -4. -6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 2. 5. 13. 25. 30. 37. 39. 41. 43. 47. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962015 INVEST 10/13/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 142.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 45.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 25.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962015 INVEST 10/13/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##