* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORA EP182015 10/13/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 35 30 25 22 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 35 30 25 22 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 35 31 28 26 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 32 30 31 29 31 32 32 26 24 21 26 28 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 4 3 4 3 3 3 2 3 2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 258 259 251 246 245 260 261 262 245 242 241 240 229 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 146 144 143 141 141 140 139 141 141 143 144 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.5 -51.7 -51.6 -51.6 -52.0 -51.8 -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -52.9 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 44 45 45 45 46 42 42 44 47 47 47 47 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 11 11 11 12 10 9 8 6 6 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 53 48 43 34 34 24 14 -3 -3 -7 -13 -17 -7 200 MB DIV 15 6 12 28 11 14 -14 13 13 -9 -15 -16 10 700-850 TADV 0 2 3 4 2 5 3 1 0 1 2 0 -1 LAND (KM) 961 884 808 750 692 606 536 490 444 418 406 398 391 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.9 14.1 14.5 14.9 15.6 16.1 16.4 16.7 16.5 15.9 15.5 15.4 LONG(DEG W) 148.2 149.0 149.7 150.0 150.4 150.8 151.2 151.5 151.8 152.4 153.4 154.4 155.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 4 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 25 22 18 18 19 23 25 26 27 26 30 25 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 767 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 11. 14. 16. 18. 19. 19. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -13. -16. -18. -19. -19. -20. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -12. -14. -16. -17. -18. -19. -19. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -15. -18. -25. -35. -42. -44. -47. -49. -51. -50. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182015 NORA 10/13/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 10.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182015 NORA 10/13/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##