* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962015 10/13/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 24 27 36 44 48 55 57 59 61 64 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 24 27 36 44 48 55 57 59 61 64 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 23 27 32 38 43 47 52 59 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 10 9 8 2 3 2 5 7 10 12 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 4 4 3 2 3 1 -4 -6 -5 -5 -1 SHEAR DIR 36 45 56 63 51 67 209 257 188 212 222 254 259 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.6 29.2 29.0 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.9 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 163 163 163 162 162 162 158 156 158 157 156 154 154 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -51.8 -51.9 -52.2 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 10 10 9 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 64 67 65 63 63 58 60 60 61 59 57 54 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 12 13 15 19 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -18 -19 -17 -12 -15 -21 -12 15 30 47 68 98 200 MB DIV 8 22 20 22 32 18 25 31 55 47 73 76 76 700-850 TADV 0 0 2 2 0 1 3 5 2 1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 973 1021 1078 1135 1206 1375 1484 1633 1763 1908 2050 2161 2268 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.5 10.7 11.0 11.2 11.6 12.0 12.4 12.9 13.3 13.8 14.3 14.8 LONG(DEG W) 107.1 108.4 109.6 111.0 112.4 115.3 118.1 120.8 123.4 125.8 128.0 130.0 131.9 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 14 14 14 14 13 12 11 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 58 53 40 27 29 59 27 27 17 20 29 31 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 690 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 7. 15. 24. 32. 36. 39. 41. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 7. 4. 2. 0. -2. -4. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 9. 12. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 4. 7. 16. 24. 28. 35. 37. 39. 41. 44. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962015 INVEST 10/13/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 142.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 17.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962015 INVEST 10/13/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##