* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORA EP182015 10/13/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 36 31 27 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 36 31 27 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 37 34 31 28 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 31 33 31 32 33 34 32 25 24 27 29 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 3 6 8 4 4 3 4 2 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 253 252 243 240 250 261 258 254 244 236 243 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 145 144 142 141 140 139 140 141 142 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.7 -51.6 -51.7 -52.0 -51.8 -52.1 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 9 10 9 9 8 8 9 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 44 45 44 44 41 41 47 53 51 50 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 8 6 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 47 39 39 33 17 1 -4 -13 -19 -19 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 11 14 25 14 16 23 -16 8 -6 -15 -24 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 5 5 3 3 5 1 0 0 3 1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 915 825 736 686 636 585 521 498 513 460 345 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.5 14.9 15.3 15.7 16.3 16.5 16.6 16.5 16.5 16.6 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 148.4 149.1 149.8 150.1 150.3 150.4 151.0 151.2 151.1 151.8 153.4 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 6 5 4 2 2 0 2 5 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 13 16 20 24 28 30 31 30 28 35 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 719 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 11. 14. 16. 18. 18. 19. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -5. -10. -14. -17. -20. -21. -22. -23. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -15. -17. -17. -18. -18. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -13. -17. -24. -31. -37. -39. -43. -44. -45. -44. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182015 NORA 10/13/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182015 NORA 10/13/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##