* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962015 10/13/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 25 28 35 41 47 52 54 56 59 63 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 25 28 35 41 47 52 54 56 59 63 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 27 31 35 38 42 48 55 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 8 6 3 1 2 1 4 5 8 12 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 5 3 1 3 2 -1 -5 -6 -5 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 40 43 49 29 22 247 272 198 230 206 243 258 270 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.6 29.4 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.9 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 162 162 163 161 157 157 158 157 155 153 155 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.1 -51.8 -52.0 -52.2 -51.9 -52.2 -51.8 -52.0 -51.6 -52.1 -51.8 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 11 11 10 10 9 8 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 67 64 64 63 62 58 60 62 62 61 58 57 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 8 8 8 8 9 10 11 12 14 17 20 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -22 -17 -10 -10 -19 -22 -5 15 34 67 82 104 200 MB DIV 18 19 25 32 27 31 19 38 47 76 76 72 76 700-850 TADV 0 1 2 1 2 1 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1037 1091 1143 1216 1303 1433 1573 1716 1848 1997 2127 2213 2335 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.6 10.8 11.1 11.3 11.7 12.1 12.6 13.1 13.5 14.0 14.6 15.0 LONG(DEG W) 108.3 109.6 110.9 112.4 113.8 116.7 119.6 122.3 124.8 127.1 129.2 131.0 132.9 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 14 14 14 14 13 12 11 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 49 41 27 31 57 37 25 21 17 23 31 24 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 7. 15. 24. 31. 36. 39. 41. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. -1. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 14. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 8. 15. 21. 27. 32. 34. 36. 39. 43. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962015 INVEST 10/13/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 142.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 20.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962015 INVEST 10/13/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##