* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORA EP182015 10/13/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 36 33 30 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 36 33 30 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 39 37 34 31 25 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 29 27 28 30 33 33 30 26 23 29 26 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 7 9 9 2 2 3 3 -2 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 251 241 235 244 247 250 253 241 235 224 228 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 145 144 143 141 141 141 140 141 141 142 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.6 -51.7 -52.0 -52.1 -51.8 -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -52.8 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 9 10 9 9 9 9 8 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 44 45 44 42 42 45 48 48 48 49 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 13 11 11 10 9 8 6 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 43 42 33 18 8 -7 0 -5 -14 -17 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 26 37 25 29 6 2 9 -9 -7 -22 -14 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 5 3 5 4 1 1 0 2 2 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 829 767 705 651 598 544 490 445 404 336 274 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.7 15.1 15.5 15.9 16.3 16.5 16.5 16.4 16.4 16.5 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 149.2 149.6 150.0 150.3 150.6 150.9 151.4 152.0 152.8 153.8 155.0 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 5 4 2 2 3 4 5 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 14 18 22 26 29 30 28 29 35 34 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 752 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 34.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 16. 17. 18. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -3. -4. -8. -12. -16. -18. -20. -21. -21. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. -17. -17. -18. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -5. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -10. -16. -23. -28. -32. -36. -38. -38. -40. -40. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182015 NORA 10/13/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 34.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182015 NORA 10/13/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##