* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962015 10/13/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 24 29 39 50 62 72 80 90 96 102 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 24 29 39 50 62 72 80 90 96 102 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 27 33 43 58 77 101 121 130 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 7 3 2 2 3 5 10 10 9 17 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 2 0 0 -1 -1 -6 -7 -6 -4 -6 -3 SHEAR DIR 39 45 37 11 16 47 47 81 55 72 32 14 14 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.0 29.0 29.3 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.0 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 163 162 161 161 160 157 157 159 165 165 164 162 162 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.7 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -52.0 -52.0 -51.7 -51.9 -52.1 -52.4 -52.0 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 66 65 66 66 62 63 63 68 73 76 78 80 82 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 12 14 16 20 24 28 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -24 -19 -17 -14 -12 -3 19 53 78 96 89 79 200 MB DIV 14 25 39 29 32 40 45 52 48 71 84 105 146 700-850 TADV 0 1 2 3 0 0 2 0 -1 -2 -4 -5 -4 LAND (KM) 1116 1212 1318 1448 1557 1755 2009 2227 2449 2636 2730 2668 2606 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.2 9.9 9.7 9.3 8.9 8.6 8.5 9.1 LONG(DEG W) 109.5 111.2 112.9 114.7 116.4 119.8 123.1 126.1 128.7 130.7 132.1 132.8 133.1 STM SPEED (KT) 14 17 17 17 17 17 15 14 12 9 6 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 44 30 42 66 66 42 33 36 20 21 21 20 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 7. 15. 24. 31. 36. 39. 42. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 11. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 17. 16. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -11. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 19. 24. 29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 9. 19. 30. 42. 52. 60. 70. 76. 82. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962015 INVEST 10/13/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 141.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 49.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 18.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962015 INVEST 10/13/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##