* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORA EP182015 10/14/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 31 27 24 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 31 27 24 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 32 29 26 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 30 30 35 37 36 33 29 26 22 25 27 32 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 8 9 5 0 2 1 5 4 5 0 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 243 237 245 251 254 251 240 240 233 232 227 240 244 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 145 143 143 141 141 141 140 140 141 143 144 144 146 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.6 -53.0 -53.6 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 9 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 44 43 42 41 40 43 41 43 43 44 44 44 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 8 6 6 3 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR 51 48 39 25 15 5 4 9 -8 -3 -8 -18 -22 200 MB DIV 33 20 15 6 14 13 13 2 2 -3 0 -7 16 700-850 TADV 4 4 4 4 5 2 1 0 2 1 0 1 1 LAND (KM) 737 675 613 578 544 482 390 338 298 244 270 360 449 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.2 15.6 15.9 16.1 16.5 17.1 17.2 17.0 16.8 16.7 16.7 16.8 LONG(DEG W) 149.9 150.3 150.7 150.9 151.1 151.5 152.1 152.7 153.6 154.9 156.7 158.2 159.4 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 3 3 3 3 4 5 7 8 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 16 20 25 27 28 29 33 36 38 36 32 32 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 788 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 18. 21. 22. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -12. -16. -19. -21. -22. -23. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. -15. -16. -16. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -11. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -13. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -11. -15. -23. -30. -36. -41. -42. -46. -48. -47. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182015 NORA 10/14/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 10.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182015 NORA 10/14/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##