* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962015 10/14/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 22 25 29 39 51 63 73 82 90 96 102 V (KT) LAND 20 20 22 25 29 39 51 63 73 82 90 96 102 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 27 33 42 56 75 97 116 127 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 9 6 4 3 3 2 2 8 6 10 15 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 3 0 1 2 -1 -2 -4 -5 -4 -5 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 31 23 14 18 12 40 58 57 55 43 28 19 6 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.2 28.9 29.1 29.4 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.7 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 161 161 159 156 158 160 166 165 163 159 158 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -52.3 -51.6 -52.0 -51.7 -52.4 -52.0 -52.6 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 65 66 65 62 63 62 63 68 71 75 75 78 80 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 11 13 15 18 22 26 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -19 -13 -11 -7 -8 10 34 58 78 91 87 80 200 MB DIV 28 45 38 37 45 21 29 43 46 51 66 94 208 700-850 TADV 2 2 2 0 0 3 1 0 -1 -3 -4 -5 -3 LAND (KM) 1178 1278 1397 1521 1612 1832 2079 2312 2542 2719 2588 2502 2437 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.4 10.5 10.5 10.4 10.3 10.0 9.7 9.3 8.8 8.4 8.1 8.4 LONG(DEG W) 110.7 112.5 114.2 116.0 117.7 121.1 124.3 127.3 129.9 132.1 133.7 134.8 135.3 STM SPEED (KT) 15 17 17 17 17 16 15 14 12 10 7 4 2 HEAT CONTENT 32 35 64 66 62 43 30 26 20 21 20 21 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 7. 15. 24. 32. 36. 39. 42. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 12. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 14. 14. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 12. 16. 21. 26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 5. 9. 19. 31. 43. 53. 62. 70. 76. 82. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962015 INVEST 10/14/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 141.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 51.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962015 INVEST 10/14/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##