* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORA EP182015 10/14/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 25 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 25 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 26 22 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 32 34 35 37 37 32 33 26 25 24 30 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 9 5 1 1 0 1 3 1 3 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 232 240 248 249 242 237 235 244 226 226 233 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 142 141 141 140 140 141 143 144 147 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.9 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.8 -52.8 -53.3 -53.6 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 10 10 9 10 9 9 9 10 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 44 43 42 43 45 44 44 46 48 51 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 10 10 9 8 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 37 23 12 2 -17 9 -10 -16 -13 -8 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 19 13 10 17 5 30 0 0 -8 5 13 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 4 5 5 3 1 0 0 2 1 -1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 700 657 615 576 538 462 391 323 279 330 483 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.1 15.4 15.7 15.9 16.3 16.6 16.7 16.5 16.0 15.2 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 150.4 150.7 150.9 151.2 151.4 152.0 152.7 153.6 154.8 156.3 158.0 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 5 7 8 9 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 21 24 27 27 26 30 37 34 31 28 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 746 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 17. 21. 24. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -2. -3. -7. -12. -16. -20. -22. -22. -23. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. -17. -17. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -15. -16. -17. -17. -17. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -13. -17. -26. -35. -43. -48. -51. -53. -53. -51. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182015 NORA 10/14/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 1.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182015 NORA 10/14/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##