* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962015 10/14/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 35 40 52 62 74 84 93 100 108 111 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 35 40 52 62 74 84 93 100 108 111 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 30 32 35 43 54 68 87 108 127 136 136 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 7 5 4 4 3 1 4 5 7 11 13 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 1 3 1 -1 -4 -5 -2 -3 -4 -4 -6 SHEAR DIR 20 13 18 15 52 84 200 67 84 41 23 9 8 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.1 28.9 29.2 29.7 29.9 30.0 29.8 29.7 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 162 163 163 161 158 156 159 163 165 165 161 158 158 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -51.9 -51.7 -52.0 -51.9 -51.7 -51.9 -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -52.4 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 8 8 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 67 67 63 63 63 62 63 66 70 73 75 76 79 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 9 10 11 12 13 15 19 22 27 30 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -12 -7 -5 -10 2 27 44 67 83 90 77 63 200 MB DIV 41 36 38 47 36 31 44 44 58 76 88 160 185 700-850 TADV 2 2 1 1 3 4 0 0 -2 -3 -5 -5 -1 LAND (KM) 1231 1347 1466 1552 1656 1898 2121 2361 2583 2605 2499 2438 2415 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.7 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.7 10.6 10.3 9.9 9.3 8.8 8.7 9.1 LONG(DEG W) 112.0 113.8 115.5 117.3 119.1 122.5 125.7 128.6 131.0 133.0 134.4 135.1 135.1 STM SPEED (KT) 15 17 17 18 17 16 15 13 11 9 6 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 30 57 67 58 39 39 24 18 19 19 20 19 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 15. 23. 30. 34. 36. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 5. 8. 11. 12. 13. 12. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 15. 21. 27. 31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 10. 15. 27. 37. 49. 59. 68. 75. 83. 86. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962015 INVEST 10/14/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 50.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 38% is 2.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962015 INVEST 10/14/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##