* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORA EP182015 10/14/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 26 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 26 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 27 24 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 34 38 40 41 37 30 28 23 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 7 3 1 1 0 5 5 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 234 242 246 244 246 234 245 246 244 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 142 141 140 141 142 141 140 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -52.5 -52.8 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 40 38 40 42 41 42 43 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 10 10 10 8 7 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 28 8 0 -12 -17 -5 -18 -29 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 9 -1 5 -13 -4 10 16 11 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 5 5 3 2 1 1 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 673 612 552 505 458 398 295 266 293 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.2 15.5 15.9 16.2 16.4 16.6 16.6 16.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 150.8 151.3 151.7 152.0 152.2 152.9 154.2 154.9 155.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 5 4 3 5 5 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 24 28 28 29 33 35 34 31 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 727 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 17. 21. 24. 25. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -12. -16. -20. -23. -24. -25. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. -17. -17. -18. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -5. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -7. -11. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. -15. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -12. -16. -26. -33. -41. -47. -50. -52. -53. -52. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182015 NORA 10/14/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 37.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 7.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182015 NORA 10/14/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##