* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962015 10/14/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 40 52 65 77 87 95 104 107 111 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 40 52 65 77 87 95 104 107 111 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 30 32 35 43 55 71 91 113 129 134 132 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 4 3 3 2 2 5 5 9 12 14 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 3 2 0 -2 -4 -3 -3 -5 -5 -5 -9 SHEAR DIR 12 12 14 45 66 114 50 70 48 33 16 13 349 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.9 29.0 29.3 29.8 30.0 30.0 29.8 29.8 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 161 162 160 158 156 157 159 164 165 164 160 159 160 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.8 -51.6 -51.9 -52.1 -51.5 -51.9 -51.5 -52.3 -51.8 -52.4 -51.8 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 67 64 64 63 63 63 67 69 72 74 76 78 80 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 11 13 14 16 20 24 27 31 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -9 -5 -8 -3 7 28 43 61 70 68 59 53 200 MB DIV 44 49 58 47 32 47 56 74 88 88 100 158 181 700-850 TADV 2 0 0 1 3 2 -1 -1 -2 -3 -4 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 1368 1495 1571 1663 1767 1998 2211 2432 2654 2597 2508 2468 2434 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.4 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.4 10.3 10.0 9.5 9.1 8.8 9.0 9.8 LONG(DEG W) 113.6 115.4 117.1 118.7 120.4 123.6 126.6 129.2 131.5 133.2 134.3 134.6 134.5 STM SPEED (KT) 15 17 16 16 16 15 14 12 10 7 3 2 4 HEAT CONTENT 56 65 59 45 43 33 29 22 19 20 20 18 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 15. 23. 29. 34. 36. 38. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 12. 12. 12. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. 12. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 16. 23. 27. 31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 15. 27. 40. 52. 62. 70. 79. 82. 86. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962015 INVEST 10/14/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 53.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962015 INVEST 10/14/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##